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Mental Models
A mental model is a simplified, internal representation of the world that we use to understand, predict, and make decisions, often leading to cognitive biases. 1
- Regression to the mean: “What goes up must come down?” That’s regression to the mean. It’s a fancy way of saying things tend to even out over time. Highs and lows balance out. Extreme events rarely last. A winning streak will end. A bad day will pass.
- Inversion: Solve problems backward. Questioning everything. Think backward to take a step forward. Normally, you think about what you want. More money, a better job, true love… That’s how we’re wired. But inversion is thinking about what you don’t want. Instead of “How do I get rich?” you ask, “How do I avoid staying poor?”
- Compounding growth: Small steps/actions/efforts add up. It’s like saving money. You invest a little every day, and over time, you’ve built something huge. It works in skills, habits, and even relationships. Focus on 1% improvement daily.
- The map is not the territory: Plans are not reality. Maps simplify things. But they’re not exact. If you have a map of a city, it shows you the streets and buildings. But it’s not the actual city. You can’t smell the food, hear the traffic, or feel the vibe. It’s the same with everything. Your ideas about things, beliefs, and memories are like maps.
- Hanlon’s razor: Assume ignorance over malice. People make mistakes. They’re not always out to hurt you or get you. Instead of questioning people’s intentions, question their competence. Instead of getting mad, try giving people the benefit of the doubt.
- Occam’s razor: It’s a technical way of saying, “Keep it simple, stupid!” If you have two explanations for something, the simpler one is usually better. Complexity creates confusion. Cut through the noise. It’s how you find clarity.
- Second-order thinking: Think beyond now. Always ask, “Then what?” Don’t just stop at the first answer. What are the consequences of your actions if you follow through? What are others likely to do? Think like a chess player. First-order thinking is just seeing the move right in front of you. It’s a mental model that reveals hidden consequences. Use it in relationships, work, and health. You’ll avoid short-term traps.
- Margin of safety: Plan for the unexpected. Leave room for error. You always want some extra room for error.
- The Stockdale paradox: Balance optimism with realism. If you’re struggling, admit it. But believe things can improve. The balance keeps hope alive. It also helps you face reality.
- The endowment effect: We overvalue what we own. It’s why you hesitate to declutter. It’s a human bias. It’s irrational, I know. But it’s because we hate losing things. It happens with everything, from concert tickets to houses. It’s why it’s so hard to get rid of stuff sometimes. For things I want to let go of, I use questions like, would I buy this today? to simplify my life.
- Opportunity cost: Most people know this common one but rarely apply it in life. Saying yes to one thing means saying no to another. Time and energy are finite. There’s always a trade-off. Economists love this thinking tool.
- The Eisenhower matrix: It’s a simple tool to help you prioritize. You basically put your tasks into four boxes. You have a box for things that are IMPORTANT and URGENT.
- Confirmation bias awareness: We love hearing what we already believe. We favor information that supports our existing beliefs.
- The circle of control: Focus on what you can control. Let go of what you can’t . It’s a stoic idea. If you feel overwhelmed by anything, draw a circle. Inside the circle? Things you can control. Think your attitude, your actions, your words. I can control how I react to a rude comment. Outside the circle? Everything else! The weather, the economy, and what other people think of me. The circle of control helps you focus your energy.
- Antifragility: Some things get stronger under stress. Things aren’t just tough. They actually get better when stuff goes wrong. Think of your muscles. You lift weights. You stress them. They don’t just stay the same. They get stronger! That’s antifragile.
- The 5 whys: Get to the root of problems. Be a curious kid again! Just keep asking, “Why?” until you get to the bottom of things. Why am I tired? I’m not sleeping well. Why? I’m on my phone late. Why? I’m stressed. It helps fix the cause of a problem, not the symptom.
- Regret minimization: This is about making choices you can live with. You know, those big life decisions that keep you up at night. Will I regret not doing this in 10 years?